Please join me along with Tom Essaye in our War Room briefing — this Friday!
Here are the key facts:
Date: Friday, April 1
Time: 12 Noon Eastern Time (9 AM Pacific, 4 PM GMT)
Subject: Market Update and Portfolio Review
Your participation: Question and Answer Session
And here’s what to do …
Step 1. Post your questions here in advance.
Step 2. A few minutes before 12 Noon on Friday (9 AM Pacific, 4 PM GMT), click here.
That’s it! Tom and I look forward to seeing you there.
Regards,
Claus
P.S. If you have trouble logging in, please call 1-800-711-4090. Technical assistance will begin on Friday at 11 AM (8 AM Pacific, 3 PM GMT).
P.P.S. Later, the recording of the briefing will also be available on the weissresearchissues.com website. But we recommend you participate during the event on Friday.
{ 30 comments… read them below or add one }
In view of the world situation and massive emissions of
Money is not gold silver etc bound to go up.
There has been a good deal written about the demise of the dollar and, indeed, the eventual fate of all fiat currencies. In your opinion, if hyperinflation occurs in the United States, how would this affect currencies that have been strong against the dollar, such as Canadian, Austalian, Swiss, Norwegian and others?
My son in law trades currency and feels the dollar will rally relative to other currencies. Does this change any recommendations regarding emerging market etfs. etc.?
None
Claus, for the past two years you have been using technical analysis to confirm your opinion that the stock market must go down. We have missed a two year bull market that continues to go up, mostly because of the Fed and Goldman Sachs continuing to manipulate it higher. Who says that this can’t go on for many more years? “The trend is your friend,” regardless of what technical analysis says should happen.
Why is it that you and other market advisers don’t recognise POMO that started mid September 2010 and QE2 that followed ? It took away free market principles given us a false market rally while devaluing the dollar, taking value from all of us. This while you think the market will act in normal patterns as if the FED’s didn’t interfere at all.
Can you please address where to place cash until commodities and markets correct.
Could you summarize how well the MCPortfolio has performed? It seems to me that if one had invested in GDX and SLV alone, the MCP would be in a much better standing than is currently the case. By using sell stops for offsetting steep selloffs, could we not have done considerably better?
Does Claus have any of his own money in these positions?
I thought ZSL was a trade not a long term holding? We have held this for a considerable loss. Why wasn’t a stop loss put on it?
In your book, THE GLOBAL DEBT TRAP you made comments which were somewhat negative on the Swiss Franc, yet that currency has been quite strong versus the dollar and the euro. Any further comment on the Franc?
You have been saying for about a year now, to expect a big correction. Sooner or later your going to be right.
I what areas do you expect to make your subscribers some money.
Jim Mace
Do you think the Chinese will break the peg between the Yaun and the Dollar and with what effect?
Thanks
Although I enjoy your economic reviews, there are longer term social trends that have been ignored. An example would be the shift from and single wage earner family to dual two wage earners. Another would be the ratio of wages between government verses private workers. Also ratio of wages between engineers/ managers and factory workers. In short I see a major return to economic culture prior to the 60′s. Could you comment?
You talk about diverging markets but you have a lacking charts in general when you explain a situation.I would like in general to see more charts
Thank You, Paul Cass
Claus,
ZSL has nearly wiped out all the gains in Gold. Was this the outcome you’d envisioned for this position?
According to Tom, Claus has done “quite well” with individual stocks:
So lets look at the numbers:
Closed positions:
DAI (Daimler): -4.6%
FDO (Family Dollar Stores, Inc. Comm): +22.46%
AAN (Aaron’s Rents): -23.94%
CME Group: -18.3%
UPS (United Parcel Service): -8.9%
ADM (Archer-Daniels-Midland Company): -16.79%
PEP (Pepsico, Inc. Common Stock): +5.4%
Open Positions:
EGO (Eldoroado Gold): +76.3%
KGC (Kinross Gold): -18.04%
Now I ask anyone who looks at the the above track record: Has Clause REALLY “done Well” with individual stocks???
No xomment, juat want to listen.
Claus, I could not agree with you more. this market is too expensive. I am even on the side lines with gold, silver and oil.
We are poised to get back in, but I believe we need a correction. time will tell if we get it.
My powder is dry. let the markets roll. thanks, harry
Most of what I heard was excellent so let me get right to what I think was missing that used to be more in the monthly updates. if I remember correctly. You used to tie in the specific positions we were in and say whether we were going to hold or sell our postions and which economic indicators are we watching and waiting for to tell us our next course of action. Knowing this would let us know what the plans are for the money we currently have in both loosing and gaining positions and are only unrealized because we keep holding all of our positions. So basically I am curious to know for each stock what are the conditions upon which we are going to sell whether for a gain or a loss?
ZSL down 50.69%. Larry E. has been in and out of this SPECULATIVE position twice now as ZSL has blown through 2 consecutive stops. And you Claus sit on your hands and watch this thing further erode the value of the portfolio. Within a couple thousand $ or so ZSL has now negated the gains that GLD (held for two years) had gotten.
Wasn’t this supposed to be a quick trade that stood a relatively good chance of helping turn this fiasco around? Not only were you incorrect (that’s to be expected from time to time) but you tenaceously cling to your views in the light of increasing evidence that your vision may be impaired (at least in the short term).
How’s sitting “on the sidelines” with silver and gold working out for you Harry?
My documented predictions on this blog shortly after we purchased ZSL (12-14-2010) that we would ride this trade down to a minus 50% loss or greater came to fruition today when our ZSL portfolio position fell to -50.59%.
Jim, your list omits some of the worst portfolio performers such as SH and SEF. We’ve closed out positions in both plus have newer open positions in both. I realize that they are ETFs and not individual equities. Their portfolio performances are as follows:
SH = -17.97%, -16.30%, -5.00%
SEF = -12.81%, -19.10%, -27.00%
Further to Jim Collister’s comment, I provide the following:
In the approximate 2 year of life of this portfolio, it has FALLEN in value by approximately 11%, whereas the S&P500 over that time has GAINED over 65% (as per the portfolio page).
Oi vey, even my old high-fee mutual funds from the “big bad boys” would have done better (had I not switched to this portfolio).
Care to comment?
Today, what was supposed to be a quick “profitable trade” in ZSL is currently sitting on a 57% loss and are merrily heading toward the 60% loss point! Although, not have any stop loss orders in place the 60% near loss in ZSL could eventually become a 70% or even an 80% loss.Your guess is as good as mine; After the losses experienced in SH and SEF by the MDCP it would appear that no loss is too big to endure for Claus.
Two remarkable aspects of this otherwise dismal choice [ZSL] are that the MDCP managed to accomplish this feat in about only 90 days and secondly why have they continued to hold this massive near 60% loss position for unknown and unexplained reasons? It seems to me that what we’re doing at the MDCP is opposite to what the rest of the investing public is doing………. making money.
Another performance metric for the MCP’s performance could be determined using the following equation:
Take the number of MCP members that attended the very first War Room meeting in 2009. We’ll call that figure “X”. Now well take the total number of MDCP subscribers that attended the very last War Room meeting and call that group “Y”.
Take the “X” number and subtract the “Y” number from it. Take the resulting number, we’ll call that number “Z”. Next we’ll take the “Z” number and divide it by the “X” number so our equation would look like this:
(X -Y = Z)/X = % loss in MCP membership over the last two years of the bull market. This is only a simple indicator because not all members, past and present, attended War Room meetings.
I’m willing to bet that “Y” number (current MCP membership) is now considerably lower than the “X” number (initial membership War Room listeners).
Is there one metric, just one, that shows the MCP’s performance in a positive light other than the profit Weiss made selling subscriptions to this service? Could anyone just name one good thing that’s resulted from their membership in the MCP?
Year three started off just like years one and two as exemplified by our last purchase of ZSL which is down almost 60% in only little more than three months. I did want to believe that would happen when another MCP member wrote several times that this inverse ETF would be ridden down to a 60% or greater loss. At the momont ZSL is currently trading at a loss of 59.91% loss.
CORRECTION:
The sentence above: . “I did want to believe that would happen when another MCP member wrote several times that this inverse ETF would be ridden down to a 60% or greater loss. At the momont ZSL is currently trading at a loss of 59.91% loss”.
Should have read:
“. I did NOT want to believe that would happen again when another MCP member wrote several times that this inverse ETF would be ridden down to a 60% or greater loss. At the momont ZSL is currently trading at a loss of 59.91% loss.
Claus,
Within a margin of approximately $100, ZSL (in 3 months) has completely negated the gains from GLD position held for 2+ years. Now I ask you, is this the type of portfolio management YOU personally would pay top dollar for? If not, then perhaps you will understand the overwhelmingly negative nature of the blog entries associated with this “service”
I went back and read all the blogs since we purchased ZSL in December 2010 and found no less than six entries starting within days of ZSL’s purchase that this purchase was short-sighted in its timing. One member, Kevin M. predicted that you would ride ZSL down to a loss of a least 50% to 60%. Remarkably he first made this prediction on this blog in late December 2010 and early Jan. 2011. That’s the kind of accuracy the MCP could use. This guy’s call on Kinross Gold was equally as correct. He wrote that even if gold went to $1500 an ounce Kinross Gold (KGC) would still be a loosing position for us, well that turned out to be right. Jim has made so great calls also as have other members. It seems the MCP could learn from its members.
Has anyone told the current portfolio management that our inverse silver price trade, ZSL, , is today suffering a 65% loss in value since we bought it. At what price loss do you Claus intend to sell it at: -70%, -75%, -80% or perhaps 85%. This on top of a 1:4 reverse split with this very poor choice of an investment trade. We’re into our third year of losses while the market today turned positive for the year and is in it’s third straight year of gains. How and why Claus has this condition come to pass by someone who claims to be a market expert?
Why is gold trading at an all time high of $1,405.50 and Kinross Gold is trading at $15.36, down 0ver 18% from where we bought it over two years ago? We have held this poor gold choice which continues its terribly performing ways, year in and year out, why Claus?
Why do we keep buying and holding so many losers? I don’t know much about investing but I believe that you’re supposed to buy and hold the winners and sell the losers. That would mean we would have to sell more than half of this sickly and mal timed portfolio.