Please join me along with Tom Essaye in our War Room briefing — this Friday!
Here are the key facts:
Date: Friday, January 28
Time: 12 Noon Eastern Time (9 AM Pacific, 4 PM GMT)
Subject: Market Update and Portfolio Review
Your participation: Question and Answer Session
And here’s what to do …
Step 1. Post your questions here in advance.
Step 2. A few minutes before 12 Noon on Friday (9 AM Pacific, 4 PM GMT), click here.
That’s it! Tom and I look forward to seeing you there.
Regards,
Claus
P.S. If you have trouble logging in, please call 1-800-711-4090. Technical assistance will begin on Friday at 11 AM (8 AM Pacific, 3 PM GMT).
P.P.S. Later, the recording of the briefing will also be available on the weissresearchissues.com website. But we recommend you participate during the event on Friday.
{ 62 comments… read them below or add one }
Read this morning that regular stocks are taxed at 15, but ETF,s are taxed at 35% when sold, is this true?
Thank you.
We’re betting short practically across the board but still holding on to Kinross and Eldorado? Aren’t gold mining stocks ripe for a beating now? I guess my question is really more along the lines of….We seem to hold everything in this portfolio long term. Shouldn’t be be trading in and out on these fairly predictable up/down moves?
Claus – Could you comment on the safety of Treasury Bonds, long term (20 years), Medium term (3-5 years), and 3 Month T-Bills. And could you explain why you hold Market Short positions so long. You have been predictiong a turn downward in the Market for quite along time now. But it doesn’t seem to be happening. Finally, do you believe that the recent visit of China’s leader Hu, and his commitment to buying Airliners, and opening up more trade with the USA is real, or is it just more lip service? Will China stop artifically keeping their currency low to attract trade? What is their incentive to change policy, and what can the USA do to get more of an even playing field with China?
Why don’t you buy the Chinese yuon?
good morning, the market continues to amaze me. How can a market hold up with such strong fundementals going against it. Debt, fiat money printing, budget deficits , endangered financial systems with banks, insurance companies etc. living beyond their means–overstating the value of their assets etc… My common sense says we should be walking through the valley, not sitting on such high numbers. how much longer can this go on. thanks, harry
If printing money to finance the US budget deficit isn’t causing inflation,why shouldn’t the U.S authorities just carry on doing it ?
Klaus, if the dollar is going to drop horrendously, do we want to hold things like gold which are valued in US Dollars. Seems like a losing game to me. Daniel
Claus, If we had just followed an index fund tied to the S&P 500 we would be up about 71% from inception instead of down about 9.5%. I know this is a contrarian prortfolio but don’t the indicators you watch give enough timing that we can take advantage of a rising market instead of just waiting our second year for a down turn or alternatively buy and sell a little more to take advantage of market buying and selling opportunities to make some money which is why I am following your advice?
Daniel,
When the dollar depreciates, things valued in dollars go up. As the value of the dollar decreases so does it’s buying power – so goods valued against the dollar go up in price. Holding gold and other natural resources is, in part, a hedge against the beating that the dollar will likely experience in the future.
Claus,
What’s your take on the increasing price of food. It would seem to me that since we’ve hit peak oil (in my opinion) and since modern society essentially converts oil into food, that this trend will only continue. Would an investment in an ETF such as DBA be a prudent hedge against this trend?
1. How many MDCP participants do we have as of 12/31/10?
2. How many MDCP participants did we have as of 12/31/09?
Please advise why the variance?
JWM
Claus,
Claus,
It seems that the appetite to tackle the budget deficit is gaining more and more credibility. If it is tackled at any degree of effectiveness, the economy would have to go through a prolonged, tough period of at least a couple of years which, of course, would be deflationary. With this turn of events and the strong dollar that would result, my question is: What do you see happening to the price of gold if deflation does, in fact, arrive?
Thanks.
Long-term subscriber
Larry; Please give me your take on definitive signs we should look for after the floor drops out, and we are nearing bottom about to turn up on precious metals. This will certainly enable us to hang-on with more conviction making decisions “whilst at the bottom. I know this is hard to do, but I must say with all sinserity; your input would definitly be better than mine on this one. Thanks !
Claus,
When is this market going to roll over? How much longer can it continue to go higher?……..weeks?…..months? How much longer? This is rediculous! You continue to put us in losing investments, while the bulls continue to run. Why can’t you get us on the right side of the markets for once? Please answer this! Why?
Hi Claus,
Is there any point in making any predictions? The casino is so rigged and so much double dealings everywhere that it’s just throwing darts at a moving board.The Euro seemed a logical call then up pops Europe’s loyal friend China to support it in it’s hour of need.To help the PIIGS,spite the US,hold gold down for a buying spree who knows.
I will be leaving soon so any attempt at a short term turnaround isn’t for me but thanks for your honesty during the last two years.Looking past the next few crisis I guess it’s energy,commodities(agriculture)and of course gold thats going the right way so have you any specific recommendations for the long term,
cheers, Bob J
Claus, could you please comment on your approach to assessing how the market (S&P 500) is valued? Do you look at forward earnings projections at all, and if not, why not? In your 1/20 update you stated that the market is “gravely overvalued” and referenced Robert Shiller’s version of the PE ratio, showing a current PE avg. of 23.27. I’m a bit confused on how to view this since the next day, 1/21, there was a CNBC “Strategy Session” featuring value investor Marvin Schwartz (sr. portfolio mgr. at Neuberger Berman) who said the market is “significantly underpriced”. For the S&P 500 he said the consensus this year is $96/share and for next year there’s a growing consensus for $105-$106. He said if you put this on a PE basis, the S&P is selling at about 12.1 times next year’s earnings and 13.1 times this year’s earnings. He went on to say for the last 13 years the S&P has sold at 21.2 times its earnings; and for the last 40 years at an avg. 15.3 times earnings. In that 40-year period, he said whenever interest rates were unusually low or inflation unusually low, and corporate profits were rising, the multiple of the market was somewhere between 17 and 20 times. (I’d really like to try to reconcile your viewpoint vs. that of Mr. Schwartz.) Thank-you.
Hi Claus,
I enjoy your logical use of valuation metrics, but can’t help but feel we might be anemic on consideration of geopolitical factors. Charts aside, have we considered the officially stated implications of “full spectrum dominance” in an economic realm? With balance owing to China, the largest defence budget in history, two active fronts, competitive currency out of the E.U., resource competition from the BRICS -and a multi-polar world, traditional metrics might not cut it. Besides, if we are using the same charts as everyone else, how are we supposed to beat the front runners and flash traders?
If things don’t go down soon, this portfolio is going to get whopped. With Q.E. 2, , short of a currency crisis… I’m not sure it is possible for this stuff to sink… Maybe Egypt?
Off the back,
Michael
P.S.-
Reuters published a comment suggesting a 3% drop in markets might be enough to render most large American banks insolvent (due to leverage). Is there any choice -but for the American government to print?
Holding shorts in such an inflationary environment may leave us with no shorts, pants or a shirt at all!!!
Claus, what do you think about DBA and the grain markets. It looks like food inflation is on the way. Whats your view? Tom.
Could you please review those investments that you recomended we buy and what you think their future looks like. Thanks
What events or market conditions will move the precious metals next? Higher or lower?
Briefly explain the core argument in “The Global Debt Trap”.
Thanks
Steve
we seem to have lost on 2 sides with the million $ portfolio view: our panic sale of equities last summer and the purchase of the inverse funds. How can we get this portfolio on track?
Regards, Peter
What are the impacts on each of our holdings within the portfolio going forward?
Have we crossed your previous lines in the sand?
Short term – long term gold/silver outlook.
What is the percentage of times that this current negative divergence resulted in a significant slump? 10% 50% 90%? This would be a more helpful analysis. Generalizing that this sometimes proceeds to a slump is not much use.
I paid close attention to your presentation but somehow I missed the portfolio review. This was a War Room Briefing for the Million Dollar Contrarian PORTFOLIO, right?
Mr. Essaye, you seemed to indicate that you were rushing to the conclusion of the briefing because you were running short on time. When I first joined this service the briefings ran an hour, yet today’s briefing was a mere 41 minutes. Seems to me you simply ran short of meaningful content that you were willing to share.
With each passing month I continue to be appalled at the depths to which this Weiss service has descended.
I suggest you kill these bogus briefings that only serve to remind me of what a fool I’ve been.
For the past two years or so members of the Weiss group have predicted serious problems with commercial real estate. What is happening today in this sector?
It would be helpful if Claus would send us regular emails with the holdings of the account he is managing from time to time like Monty does. It has been awhile since he has made any investmetns and it is hard to recall what the acoount holds.
It seems to me that QE, government stimulis, etc should have been taken into consideration when investment decisions, especially inverse ETF’s, were made, but this does not seem to have been the case. Why not?
Being unable to join the War Room Briefing this afternoon was a great disappointment, especially when it was declared as ‘Very Important.’ Knowing the Briefing was scheduled for this afternoon, I have been working to bring my computer up to speed in order to download the new Flash Player. However, I was unsuccessful. I spent the past 2 weeks working on a solution to no avail. I successfully downloaded & installed the Windows Media Player v. 11, but not the Flash Player. I had been reassured by 2 people (only 1 was a tech, but the 2nd person did agree when I said what the technician had said). And what had the technician told me? She said that if Flash would not play, Media Player would automatically take over & run the Briefing audio/video. Unfortunately, this was wrong according to a 3rd technician I spoke to after the Briefing. He said that both players would be required to run the Briefing video. Since both players operate independently, why would anyone need to have both on their computer?
Since there were no requirements listed in the Briefing notice last week nor today on entry, may I suggest that this requirement be stated in the email messages prior to the Briefing. Adding insult to injury, when I asked about details of the video & whether any specific recomendations to buy or sell would be made, no one could answer that question. Furthermore, when an email announced that the Briefing had been mounted on the web site, I found there was no transcript – just the video – which I was still unable to access.
I attend an important online meeting every week. For that meeting I have the option of attending using Windows Media Player, Flash Player (2 different versions), & a third possibility (not sure what that is). SUGGESTION: Please provide a similar provision of options (at least 2 choices) for those of us members who have older computers &/or older software.
Why does Marty Weiss not join in on these war room briefings? He supposedly has a million dollars on the line. How does he feel about our collective performance (or lack there of)?
In response to A. Thelen:
Martin is too busy selling new products. He needs to keep the cash flowing into his bank account. Plus, he only has $899,000 on the line now.
I appreaciate this service
Hey Fred, it’s only $896,000 on the line today today.
A. Have a bit more patience. The next correction will tell us whether this market has more staying power. If so, I will change stripes and even nibble on the long side again. If instead it breaks down in bear market fashion – which I think is more likely – I will stay the course and ride the bear.
Claus, honestly, do you hear yourself? How much patience do you expect people to have with you and Martin. Why were you guys not front from the beginning: that this portfolio might take perhaps 3 or 4 years to see benefits. This service was marketed as being able to “make money under any market conditions”. To me, that means NOW, and in the past two years, Not 3 years down the road. Instead, we’re nearly 2 years into this fiasco, nearly 10% down BEFORE accounting for cost of this portfolio, which is very high given the results to date.
At this point it would be unrealistic to expect you to turn this thing around. I’m just curious to see whether your able or willing to stop the hemorrhaging.
Number of Holdings: 12
Total Invested…………………………….. $646,906.30
Cash…………………………………………… $249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value……………………. $896,267.80
Total Return Since Inception…………… -10.37% <—–
S&P 500 Return Since Inception……… +65.60% <—–
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500……… -75.98% <—–
PSQ is racing towards a 50% loss having been in the portfolio for nearly 22 months and there is seemingly no game plan in place to manage a portfolio that consists of 12 equity holdings, 7 of which are in the red, all within a period of time the S&P500 has risen over 65%. RWM is rapidly approaching a 40% loss, seemingly it’s merely a matter of time just as is the near 20% losses in SH and KRS portend as their current price trajectories head to fresh new levels of lowliness.
Interestingly the is the third time around the SH has presented us with a loss. The first time we lost 16.30% on SH and the second time we lost 5.00% on SH.
SH single handily so far has returned the portfolio: -16.30%, -5.00%, -16.91% and a subscription constitutes a contract.
SEF, another inverse ETF with its’ triple crown losses of 19.10%, 27.00% and currently sitting with a loss of 13.10% appears likewise ill fated. It too, if history is to be a guide, may reach an even greater level of losses.
Clause, why are we still holding these stocks? Why for the love of God are we still holding Kinross Gold Corp. ‘KGC’ ?
Seriously, has anyone made any money with any of the Weiss “premium” subscriptions? I know I have paid a lot for an “education” over the years.
Claus,
Quit the paradoxical mix in the MDC portfolio. Gold and silver go up; the portfolio decreases in value. Gold and silver go down, the portfolio loses value.
Number of Holdings: 12
Total Invested………………………………….. $645,673.53
Cash………………………………………………… $249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value………………………….. $895,035.03
Total Return Since Inception……………….. -10.50% <—— New MDCP Low!
S&P 500 Return Since Inception………….. +66.00% <—— Highest Level Since 2008!
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500…………. -76.50% <—— New MDCP Low!
The last three disconcerting performance metrics cited above have never been seriously discussed let alone broached during any episode of ‘War Room Theater’. I can not speak for anyone else but myself and can only at this point express my deep disappointment with which I regard how important issues are either ignored or just superficially addressed during these reduced time [ 40 minutes as opposed to the originally devoted 60 minutes or longer, a 33% reduction of time ] given to members to inform them of issues relating to the market and the MDCP’s performance. One could conceivably draw a comparison with the 33% reduced length of time now devoted to War Room Theaters and the reduced value of the MDCP’s portfolio. In all honesty I fully understand and appreciate why Martin doesn’t even bother to attend these portfolio strategy “briefings”. Who would want to listen, yet again, to a litany of excuses for failure rather than reasons for success; Indeed Martin’s absence and Tom’s presence at these “events” speaks much to the underlying situational reality that is the MDCP’s dismal performance.
Sadly as Jim and many other current and former members have fairly pointed out, claims initially made by Martin, Claus and the MDCP that this ‘subscription’ plan was designed to profit “under any market condition” were in retrospect merely just sales hyperbole.
Linguistic experts tell us that English with its’ idiosyncrasies is a difficult language to master, even for speakers of other Germanic languages, the category of languages to which the English language is assigned. I point this rather mundane fact out because I’m somewhat bewildered by Claus’ statements that he first started claiming over a year ago that the MDCP was a “long term” plan. When speaking of investment time horizons ‘long term’ is defined as a minimum holding period of five years. Claus, would you please be kind enough to explain what appears to be a conflict between the definition of a ‘long term’ investment with an investment [subscription] plan that also claims to have the ability to profit under any market conditions which infers variable time horizons? Keeping in mind that the number of short and long term losses, both realized and on paper, far outweigh any short (4) and long term gains ($0) / zero / none / nada /zip /keiner and mid term gains of ($0) / zero / none / nada/ zip / keiner.
Thanks Claus.
p.s. I’ll bet you’re very grateful to be managing a portfolio for Martin Weiss and not for Lloyd Blankfein or Jamie Dimon.
Die letzte drei vereitelnde Leistung metrisch zitiert über ist nie ernsthaft diskutiert worden, allein broschiert während irgendeiner Episode des ‚Krieges Zimmers Theaters‘ zu lassen. Ich kann für jemanden nicht anders sprechen aber mich selbst und Dose drückt nur jetzt meine tiefe Enttäuschung aus, mit der ich betrachte, wie wichtige Ausgaben entweder oder nur oberflächlich adressiert während dieser verringerten Zeiten [40 Minuten im Gegensatz zum ursprünglich gewidmet 60 Minuten oder länger, eine 33 % Reduktion Zeit] gegeben zu Mitgliedern ignoriert sind, zu informieren, dass sie von Ausgaben sich auf den Markt und des MDCP beziehend Leistung. Einer könnte denkbar einen Vergleich mit der 33 % verringerten Dauer jetzt hat gewidmet zu Krieg Zimmer Theatern und dem verringerten Wert der Mappe des MDCP zeichnen. In allen Ehrlichkeit verstehe ich völlig und schätze, warum Martin auch nicht belästigt, diese Mappenstrategie „anweisungen“ zu besuchen. Wer zuhören wollte, trotzdem wieder, zu einer Litanei von Entschuldigungen für Ausfall anstatt Gründe zum Erfolg; Tatsächlich die Abwesenheit von Martin und die Anwesenheit von Tom an diesen „Ereignissen“ spricht viel zur zu Grunde liegenden umstandsbezogenen Realität, die die düstere Leistung des MDCP ist.
Traurig als Jim und viele andere aktuelle und ehemalige Mitglieder haben ziemlich hat gezeigt auf, Ansprüche, die anfänglich von Martin gemacht worden sind, Claus und der MDCP, dass dieser „Abonnement“ plan entworfen wurde, „unter irgendeinem Marktverhältnis“ zu profitieren, waren in Rückblick bloß nur Umsatzübertreibung. Linguistische Fachmänner erzählen uns, dass Englisch mit seines‘ Idiosynkrasien eine schwierige Sprache ist, zu beherrschen, sogar für Sprecher von anderen Germanischen Sprachen, die Kategorie von Sprachen, zu dem die englische Sprache zugeteilt ist. Ich zeige auf diese ziemlich weltliche Tatsache, weil ich werde verblüfft den Claus von durch etwas, Aussagen dass er hat angefangen Beanspruchen über vor einem zuerst, Jahr dass der war ein „langfristiger“ MDCP Plan. Beim Sprechen der Investition Zeit die „langfristigen“ Horizonte definiert ist, als ein Minimum Besitz Periode von fünf Jahren. Wären Claus, Sie bitte gütig genug zu erklären, was, erscheint, ein Konflikt zwischen der Definition einer „langfristigen“ Investition mit einer Investition [Abonnement] Plan zu sein, der auch Ansprüche zu haben die Fähigkeit, unter irgendeinen Marktverhältnissen zu profitieren, die veränderliche Zeit die Horizonte folgern? Bedenken, den die Anzahl von kurzen und langfristigen Verlusten, haben beide erkannt und auf Papier, überwiegen weit irgendein kurzes (4) und langfristige Gewinne ($0) / Null / keiner / nada /Schwung /keiner und mittlere Begriffgewinne des ($0) / Null / keiner / nada/ Schwung / keiner. Dankt Claus.
p. s. Ich werde Sie sind sehr dankbar wetten, eine Mappe für Martin Weiss zu verwalten, und nicht für Lloyd Blankfein oder Jamie Dimon.
Mein Kapitän, ich denken nicht, dass das Schiff des MDCP in der Zeit umgedreht werden kann, haben wir Bleiben mit meinem Abonnement. Ich würde angegangen werden, dass diese Aufgabe meines keine langfristige Position ist.
Jim,
What you are experiencing is the “ride” Martin promised you’d “enjoy” when you agreed to the terms and conditions of your “educational” contract ‘subsription’.
The current construction of the portfolio is akin to being put on the proverbial rack. One part of your body is pulled in one direction while the other part of your body is pulled in the opposit direction.
Mathematically speaking, based upon the velocity’s rate of decline in the price of PSQ shares, there is a 83.7% chance that PSQ’s share price will be sitting in the portfolio with an expected minimum loss of a least 50% by St. Patrick’s Day (March 17′th.)! Now that’s what I really call contrarian investing.
Loved this quote from The Tycoon Report,
“Trading the market in front of you vs. trading the market you think it should be is a great struggle for many investors. All too often, market participants get stuck in a perception trap, and they steadfastly refuse to budge from it.”
take, not long now, Bob J.
Concisely, accurately and very well stated Bob. Here’s the proof that your quote from ‘The Tycoon Report’ quote is spot on correct:
Number of Holdings: 12
Total Invested…………….. $641,819.75
Cash………………………….. $249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value……. $891,181.25
Total Return Since Inception……………. -10.88% <—–
S&P 500 Return Since Inception……………………. +66.29% <—–
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500…………………… -77.17% <—–
Two years and $2,500 I can in all fairness state my “educational” experience has produced a loss of 11% in my portfolio’s value as well as totally, completely, and absolutely missing any gains in a bull market that is often refereed to in historical terms and wherein the same time frame as the MDCP’s operational existence the S&P 500 has risen a phenomenal 66% in under two years! What does one take away from an ‘educational experience’ intended to teach subscribers proper investing methods that ironically itself has stunningly underperformed that very same market by almost 80%. I’ve also learned, the hard way admittedly, to be on guard for extravagant hyperbole couched in rhetoric that promises much but has to this point delivered nothing except separating me from some of my money.
Soon, like many other remaining members, my subscription to this Johnny-come-lately: long term investment time horizon “educational” subscription contract comes to its’ end, mercifully.
Way to go Claus!
Number of Holdings: 12 Total Invested $639,975.09
Cash $249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value $889,336.59
Total Return Since Inception -11.07%
S&P 500 Return Since Inception 66.58%
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500 -77.64%
As a matter of simple observation I venture to say that the MDCP ship not only has not<turned itself around as promised, it has actually began to take on additional water at an alarming pace. Like the more famous ship that befell tragic times early in the twentieth century this ship too hasn’t enough lifeboats. However the orchestra is playing beautiful music.
Total Return Since Inception -11.07% <—— Another New MDCP Low!
S&P 500 Return Since Inception +66.58% <—— Another New High In The S&P500 Index!
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500 -77.64% <—— Another New MDCP Low Point
All the fancy reports and seeming flawless logic has produced the above results. Results that not what was implied nor is it a bargain at $2,500 and two years of my like. Educational is has been…….. never listen to hyperbole……. ever.
Hi again,
like you Kevin I will be on my way soon(21st). Will miss all of the participants in this blog but as warm as the feeling is I’m afraid the cost is prohibitive.Still as someone from the UK the interaction has seen me gain more than I have have lost ,so I thank you all for that.I still have some affection for Claus who may in the end been proved right but the new financial weapons are something he has to come to terms with. I joined as I thought there was something in this organisation.Martin’s respect for his father’s principals shone through and he is obviously very proud of him. I’m not sure if his Dad were alive today that that sentiment would be reciprocated.
As it’s my birthday today(15th) I’m off for a little celebration with my wife so I hope you will all join me.
Take care of all of you and good luck for the future,
cheers, Bob
Re birthday.
See how good hindsight is.I wish it were my 15th, though I think my wife would be in trouble but happy till they took her away.It’s 62nd for the record so have smile on me!
good luck, Bob
Claus, in your latest update you stated:
“I am waiting for some signs of a bottoming formation as a signal to add to my gold-related investments, and also to get out of my silver short ETF. After having fallen to around $26, silver has staged what looks like a small countertrend move, up to resistance at $28.50. I expect it will soon come under pressure again to below $26.”
Resistance at the $28.50 appears to have been SIGNIFICANTLY breached, No? (it’s at $30.83 as I write). Do you know something that’s less than obvious or have you once again missed out on an easy gain in the hopes of proving one of your preconceived ideas. I do recall this position being roughly 10% up for a brief period – now it’s down by at least 12% and shows no sign recovery (at least to my untrained eye). Simiarly, there was a brief period when RWM showed a relatively impressive gain in short order subsequent to it’s plummet into the abyss. Having observed your mode of operation for nearly 2 years it seems to me that your timing is way off base because your market analysis has little bearing in a world where the FED is pumping unprecidented amounts of fiat money into the economy, thereby manipulating the markets. Theory is only of any use if it reasonably approximates reality.
Number of Holdings: 12
Total Invested $620,242.10
Cash $249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value $869,603.60
Total Return Since Inception -11.14% <———-
S&P 500 Return Since Inception 67.30% <———-
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500 -79.44% <———-
Claus, the velocity at which the portfolio’s worth is decreasing has become even more alarming. A comment or two, from you, on this disquieting development as well as why you you have not acted as you both wrote and stated when the S&P500 Index reached 1225. Why are we still in inverse ETFs or an inverse ETF that has lost nearly 47% of its’ value in under two years? Why is gold’s price moving up and is within $50 of its’ all time high in dollar terms yet Kinross Gold (KGC) is still down over 10%? Please explain the merit, reasons and logic for its continued holding by the portfolio?
Thank you
Jim,
This is something that I have for nearly two years tried to explain to Claus is one of the culprits responsible for his gross underperformance vis-a-vis the S&P500. This blog is replete with my comments to Claus that he failed and continues to fail at this MDCP endeavor because he seemingly refuses to take Bernanke’s words to Congress, under oath, that he, Bernanke “would do whatever was necessary” to re-inflate the economy. As an economist and financial manager it seems he and the MDCP failed to understand also that quantitative easing is bullish for equity prices.
I have also for over twenty months repeatedly mentioned the numerous problems with Kinross Gold Corp. That subject too was ignored during every episode of ‘War Room Theater’ that I asked why we continued to hold that looser. Today gold is at a 30 day high and KGC stock price is down over 2%.
Another look at Kinross Gold (KGC):
If one overlays the tickers KGC and GLD for the last 2 years (roughly the duration of this disasterous portfolio), GLD is up nearly 45%; KGC is down rougly 10%.
Now, if gold miners are supposed to be a leveraged play on the price of gold, what does this say about Kinross? Even more damning a plot of EGO (+100%) versus KGC (-10%) for the same 2 year period. So to reiterate Kevin’s question: why do you persist on holding what appears to be a long term loser?
Number of Holdings: 12
Total Invested……………………… $637,573.89
Cash…………………………………… $249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value……………. $886,935.39
Total Return Since Inception……………………………. -11.31% <———
S&P 500 Return Since Inception………………………. +67.99% <——–
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500……………………… -79.30% <——–.
ZSL is head toward a 20% loss, RWM is head for a 50% loss and we keep on going the wrong way as opposed to the market. Incredulous, simply incredulous. Silver is at a new 30 year high and we continue to hold an inverse silver ETF.
Has anyone else noticed that Claus’ updates are nothing more than a long winded version of his Wednesday postings on Money and Markets? Sorta begs the question: why are we paying for this service?
Also, I have a theory as to why Martin no longer has an interest in Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio (i.e. why he is absent from the War Room briefings). His exit from the scene co-incided with the time when he turned a profit from the service above and beyond the $1,000,000 invested. Beyond that point, a 100% loss in the portfolio would still be a gain for him so why care. Time to move on to another service.
ZSL is rapidly approaching the protective stop recommended by L.E. Will be interesting to see what Claus does if it blows past that value.
As of 2:45PM ZSL is positioned in the portfolio with a -23.13% loss. Wasn’t this a ‘tip’ to make a quick trading buck? How could a loss of nearly 25% in just over 8 weeks happen? The answer: no stop loss order placed.
Total Return Since Inception -11.58%
S&P 500 Return Since Inception +67.98%
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500 -79.56%
Looks like after two years of “the ride” the Contrarian Portfolio will have underperformed the S&P500 by 80% !
How do you imagine JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon or Goldman Sach’s Llyod Blankfein world evaluate this kind of performance?
Jim, from the looks of the MDCP’s performance figures over the last two years below, Claus’ statement last year to “right the ship” has only managed to reveal the frightening fact that the USS Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio is taking on water at an alarming rate and worse yet, the ship doesn’t have a single life boat on board and the Admiral of the Fleet is MIA [missing in action]. When was the last time anyone saw Martin Weiss speaking of the MDCP?
Number of Holdings: 12
Total Invested…………………………………. $635,702.48
Cash………………………………………………. $249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value……………………….. $885,063.98
Total Return Since Inception……………. -11.49% <——- NEW MDCP LOW.
S&P 500 Return Since Inception………. +68.31% <——- S&P500 at a 2-Year High.
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500………. -79.81% <—— New MDCP Performance Low.
I dare predict the situation in the Middle East will probably do more to boost the value of the MDCP’s portfolio than any expectation derived fron either classical technical or fundamental analysis. Wouldn’t it be a divine irony if tyrannical dictators such as Mubarak, Ahmadinejad and Khadaffi did for the portfolio that which Claus seems unable to do….. increase its’ value!
I believe that if we were hell-bent on owning ETFs for as long as we have, then for a year and a half the charts and sector momentum was with PowerShares DB Oil 2X / (DBO) and PowerShares DB Gold Double Long 2X /(DGP) and not with SEF, RWM, SH, ZSL, PSQ, KRS.
It’s quite the world when the above investment performance qualifies someone to write a book on how to successfully invest. Ironic, ain’t it folks?
What a surprise, gold and silver are up and ZSL (-27%) and KGC (-17%) are both down today.
Anti-Contrarian or just bad picks? You ‘in it for the education’ members can decide if this performance justifies the cost of your ‘educational experience’.
Gold is up over $14.00 per ounce at $1400.22 the ounce yet Kinross Gold is down .31 cents at $16.16 (-1.88%). Still waiting for nearly 2 years for Claus to answer my question as to why he continues to hold this looser. Read the last 2 years of my blogs on Kinross Gold which cite facts and figures as to why this puppy cannot be house broken.
Based upon mathematical calculations performed by my wife, a certified public accountant, by this coming Friday, ZSL she’s projecting to have a portfolio loss of -31.02%. Keep in mind that she is using figures based on ZSL’s performance over the last three weeks. Regardless, this kind of ETF should have had a stop loss order in place.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ China Inflation Data Can’t Be Trusted $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
China recently reported 4.9% year-over-year price inflation in January up from 4.6% year-over-year price inflation in December. This was slightly lower than the average economist estimate for China to report January price inflation of 5.4%.
In the same way that the U.S. BLS’s CPI conservatively understates price inflation by 3-4% and real price inflation in the U.S. is currently around 5% vs. the 1.5% reported by the BLS, China is taking a page from the U.S. playbook and using many different tactics to understate price inflation, and that real price inflation in China is currently around 8-10%.
Credible reports are surfacing that China has reduced the weighting of food in their CPI, in order to “more accurately” account for price inflation. Food previously made up 31.4% of China’s CPI, but now that food prices are soaring through the roof, it will now account for substantially less beginning with the recent report for the month of January despite the fact that many Chinese citizens are now spending 1/2 of their income on food.
This is exactly what the U.S. does with geometric weighting. The BLS today weights the CPI more heavily towards goods that are declining in price and weighs less the price of goods that are rising in price. Therefore, both the U.S. and China no longer track price inflation based on the cost to maintain the same standard of living. Both indexes now only track the cost of survival and they anticipate lower standards of living.
At least for the Chinese, when they abandon their currency peg with the U.S. dollar and stop importing inflation from the U.S, the Chinese will see the yuan rapidly appreciate in purchasing power and the Chinese will see a large increase in their standard of living. China has an easy solution to their inflation crisis, while the U.S. inflation crisis can only get much worse from here.
In just the 10-day period from January 21st to January 31st in China vs. the previous 10-day period, cucumber prices are up 28.2%, kidney bean prices are up 21.9%, tomato prices are up 12.9%, celery prices are up 11%, pork belly prices are up 3.3%, beef prices are up 1.9%, frozen chicken prices are up 3.1%, and chicken breast prices are up 1.6%. For the full month of January over one year ago, China reported overall food price inflation of 10.3%, with vegetable prices up 2%, fruit prices up 35%, and grain prices up 15%.
Credit to the NIA, Bloomberg, The Financial Times and others for exposing another Wall Street ‘buy China’ scam. The same foolish ‘experts’ who told us in 2008 that the emerging market economies were “de-coupled” from the developed economies are again spouting out this same nonsense. Don’t believe it, China is rapidly becoming a powder keg and Westerners need to educate themselves to the real truth about the current state of the “China miricle”.
It’s only 1:53 PM and Kinross Gold Corp is currently trading at %15.84 down 4% on a day when gold is back up over $1400.00/.oz
Every other gold stock in my portfolio, like gold itself, is up, please explain how this keeps happening….. Claus, Martin, Tom or anyone.
The last blog entry was posted on the 20′th of this month. Today is the 23′rd and still no entries posted. I know it can’t be from a result of no blog entries because I wrote several blogs that have not been posted. Based upon previous how the blog is moderated (your term) I can only surmise the most if not all of the other blogs from the few remaining members are a little too ‘critical’ of the MDCP or Claus’ performance.
Today also marks the day another portfolio holding, EUO, went into the negative in the MDCP’s portfolio. Are we going to ride this one down like SH, SEF, KRS, RWM, PSQ, KRC, ZSL in addition to the July 6′th mass sale of many portfolio holdings that we also took a beating on?
I predicted that the thugs ruling in the Middle East would do more to raise the value of the portfolio than Claus has. Sadly that prediction has come to pass, luckily for us.
Yes. It does seem some “critical” posts are being deleted by the Weiss screening team. Sometimes the truth hurts but open dialogue should be maintained.