Please join me along with Tom Essaye in our War Room briefing — this Thursday!
Here are the key facts:
Date: Thursday, December 16
Time: 12 Noon Eastern Time (9 AM Pacific, 4 PM GMT)
Subject: Market Update and Portfolio Review
Your participation: Question and Answer Session
And here’s what to do …
Step 1. Post your questions here in advance.
Step 2. A few minutes before 12 Noon on Thursday (9 AM Pacific, 4 PM GMT), click here.
That’s it! Tom and I look forward to seeing you there.
Regards,
Claus
P.S. If you have trouble logging in, please call 1-800-711-4090. Technical assistance will begin on Thursday at 11 AM (8 AM Pacific, 3 PM GMT).
P.P.S. Later, the recording of the briefing will also be available on the weissresearchissues.com website. But we recommend you participate during the event on Thursday.
{ 61 comments… read them below or add one }
What is your opinion of the FALL OF THE DOLLAR AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY?
Dear Claus,
Are you planning to directly invest in Emerging markets, after the markets have possibly dipped in 2011?
Regards,
J. Houdijk
In order to meet the money directive of the Million Dollar Contrarian’s latest move to buy ZSL I was required to sell my SLV holdings of about $41,000 where I was storing money. Since I followed this buy instruction selling SLV and buying ZSL, a 2 for 1 gain on silver’s value going down, if I understand this, then I have lost about 7.3% thus far on this swap, so my question is by what date do the earnimngs on this trade kick in based on your economic trends which predicted about a 15% decline in the price of silver, SLV, which has gone up about 4.23% since we were told to buy ZSL at the close of the market 12/13/10?
Hi Gary, If you lost 7.3% on ZSL, as I have also, and you sold SLV which has gone up 4.23% since you sold out of it, your actual mathematical loss in missed profit is -11.53% not just 7.3%
Regards
Claus,
Do you realize that just one position (PSQ) accounts for 4.1% of the total losses for the portfolio. And this position has been hovering in the upper 30′s to low 40′s% loss for nearly a year. What ever happened to being prepared to exit a losing position? Or do you think that the NASDAQ will drop sufficiently to turn this position into a winner (pretty low odds in my opinion)? If not then why are you continuing to hold this position? It’s beginning to look like you’re simply trying to vindicate you choice on this pick rather than making a decision based market trends.
Nearly two years into this thing and still NOTHING to show for our misplaced trust in this portfolio.
Claus, On Dec 10,2010 I purchased ZSL at $12.07 by Dec 14, 2010, two trading days after your recommendation to buy and my purchase of ZSL it’s currently trading at $10.70 which amounts to a loss of $1.37 per share or a loss of 11.35% in under 12 trading hours. ZSL is loosing 1% per hour during trading hours at that rate. What’s up with that? We’ve lost money quickly before but this has to be a new record.
It seems to me that you are overlooking one very important tool – The Claus Contra Indicator.
For nearly two years now, immediately after you put us into a product or sell us out of one of your recommendations; the market goes the opposite way.
I was promised a system that could make money in any market with your 11 laws for success. If you want I can send you a copy of promotional material issued back in March 2009 which outlines all the opportunities I would be missing if I didn’t subscribe. You have until March 2011 to turn this thing around if you want to keep me as a subscriber. Can you do it?
Hi Claus,
I have a few questions for you to address during the next briefing:
1) Larry Edelson is also expecting silver to pull back, but he does NOT recommend shorting silver or gold. Why would you short this commodity that is in a major bull market? Wouldn’t it be more prudent to just wait for a pull-back and buy rather than take a chance and lose $$ by shorting. So far, the majority of your shorting trades have been MAJOR LOSERS.
2) What’s your price target for TBT in 2011? By the way, good call on this trade. It is working out just fine so far.
3) The S&P 500 is currently way overbought. How much of a correction are you expecting in the short to medium term? With the implementation of QE2, most market analyts’s are expecting the markets to keep rising in 2011, with the S&P 500 reaching well over 1400. Your thoughts please.
Thanks in advance,
Will
Claus,
I agree with your your ZSL buy recommendation. Keep those good tips coming.
Noel.
P.S. Should 12m.d. Eastern not be 5pm GMT?
Claus,
What do you think of ECRI’s weekly growth index trending steadily upwards since the middle of September and the weekly ECRI coincident index recently starting to follow this trend?
Hi again,
hey Kevin, give Claus a break.He can’t be responsible for losses Gary suffered on his other investments.If Gary had been following the model he should have sufficient liquid funds without having to cash in his SLV. Didn’t take it up myself though as I don’t now think the framework of the MDCP lends itself to the inverse ETFs that we are loosing on where if we just follow the market up it could just wipe out the holding completely.If Claus is right about silver though I may use it to buy SLV on the dip.
Did buy the other inverse ETFs (TBT/EUO) which are doing ok so my question to Claus is,how confident are you that we can hang onto our profit on these,
cheers,
Bob J
Hi Claus,
I have been entirely disappointed in your porfolio. I have done nothing but loss money. I am a physician and quite frankly have put my trust in you as an expert. If one of my patients is not improving or not responding to a treatment plan I often have to re evaluate my treatment plan or put my pride aside and consult a collegue for the good of the patient.
Sincerely
Bill
If silver is going down, what about gold?
Claus,
Good call on shorting silver. How much longer do you think this adjustment will last? John
your presentation stopped after 2 minutes and has not restarted/
You base your analysis on how the market typically behaves. However, we are in a completely unique situation in which the government is adding huge amounts of money to the market and are using unique tools to manipulate the economy. In addition, money is now available outside of the US that can influence the US market. Why should the market respond in the usual way?
Seems like we have been presented with a string of possible double tops, that have really been an uptrend in the market. Why should we believe this is any different?
when people flee stocks, where will they put their money…just cash, or bonds or???
Hi Claus,
I have been entirely disappointed in your porfolio. I have done nothing but loss money. I am a attorney and quite frankly have put my trust in you as an expert. If one of my clients is not prevailing or is not satisfied with the strategic ‘battle’ plan I often have to re-evaluate the feasibility of my plan or put my pride aside and consult a collegue for the good of the client.
Sincerely
Bill,
Thanks for your accurately worded blog entry. I couldn’t have said it better. I hope you don’t mind me co-opting your words and the sentiments behind them.
Hi Bob,
Give Claus a break? I indeed will do just that when we turn this Titanic around and enter the profit zone rather than the eternal loss zone. This “ride” has never been profitable…….. ever! After almost two years of one of the the greatest bull market runs in history, we have never, and I respectfully repeat, never, has this plan ever been in the black. Even Morningstar’s ‘contrarian’ investment methodology universe of portfolios are up over 30% since March of 2009. The MDCP has underperformed the general market by over 60%. Do you believe that Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley or even Fidelity or Vanguard would accept this type of multi-year under-performance from one of their portfolio managers?
ZSL is now merely a hedge for the portfolio’s declining gold positions and not the opportunity to make some fast cash as its accompanying buy alert suggested it would be.
SH is now a three time looser for us and the market correction needed to break even, let alone make a profit, as a result of the dismal record this portfolio has had with inverse ETFs will take time to reverse if that’s possible with the likes of PSQ, SEF, SH, RWM.
Again this year the MDCP is on tract to place a lump of coal and not an ounce of profit into our investment Christmas stockings.
Clause, please give us your thoughts on how you feel about your timing vis-a-vis the timing of purchases and your use of inverse ETFs. Also why are we still holding PSQ, RWM, KGC and SH? What’s your thinking behind holding these positions significantly longer than is recommended by both these product producers and the SEC among others ?
Thanks
While I agree with Klaus’ outlook, there is no doubt that, over the past 45 days:
a) the “wheels are coming off the global bond market” in all western countries, and
b) the net result is a massive amount of liquidity flowing back into the equity markets.
As Klaus knows better than us, this significant money flow tends to lift equity asset prices. Here’s my question:
Isn’t there a good possibility that, in the short term, equity markets will continue to rise as a result of this significant excess liquidity?
Claus…you have been warning for over 1 1/2 years of a new crash. In the meantime, we haven’t made very much money on our portfolio. What are the reasons, why your indicators do not seem in sinc with the actual movements of the market. Thank you,
Peter Nitzschke
Claus,how do you differentiate the current situation from the early stages of hyper-inflation? Stocks do not fall in nominal terms hyper-inflation.
Is this a good tim to buy TBT?
If the dept crisses will crash the market, will good stocks not be a safe place to be?
other than gold, is there any place else to be?
except inverse ?
Anyone care to guess who said this? How accurately do these statements reflect the reality of you personal experience with the MDCP?
Quote:
“This members-only blog is a great place for me to share my views with you on the daily ebbs and flows of the investment climate. Also, it’s a good place to share insights with your fellow MCP members, through our comments section. Now, the blog is not a forum for debate or Q&A, but it is a fantastic environment for me to communicate more frequently with you and for you (our members) to express your ideas and perspectives, as we all steer through these challenging times.
Answer:
Launch Date Approaching…
by CLAUS VOGT on MARCH 9, 2009
Dear Claus: You said previously that if the S&P closes above 1250, you would start getting out of “short” positions in the Million Dollar Portfolio. We are very close to that S&P value now. How hard is your line in the sand right now?
Ron,
Just for clarification and clarity, Claus did not say he’d get out of the loosing inverse ETf’s. He actually said:
In his Special Update: S&P 500 Potential Double Top Clause makes the following statement: “If the S&P 500 breaks out convincingly above the current high Price Momentum Oscillator around 1.225 points, I will react and sell all my inverse ETF positions.”
Regards
K
What happened to ehe line in the sand you drew on the rise of the S&P 500?
dUE TO MY IMPAIRED HEARING,i HAVE DIFFICULTY IN UNDERSTADING. I WOULD PREFER A COPY IN PRINT WHICH I CAN READ.
THANKS
MAHENDRA
With the bond market very shaky are the Treasury only Money market Funds where the bulk of my portfolio resides still THE SAFEST ENTITY for the time being?
Dear Mr. Vogt & Mr. Essaye,
With the transcript of this War Room Conference, would you please review all of our current positions, and the prospects for profit or loss from each? Thank you very much!
Sincerely yours,
Paul Goedde
Why do you believe we will be able to get our money out of the market when this event occurs? Won’t the governments interfere and trading houses freeze trades and assets.
This is supposed to be the briefing, not the blog site. GT
I need a print version please., so can make a decision that Claus has made and due to my impaired hearing need a print ed version.
thanks
mahendra
dear Claus:
Since August 31st Fed has PMO injections of 2-7 billion dollars daily and therefore all your forecasts have not materialized. At least you should have mentioned this and have given short term stock picks by which I would have made some money and would not have lost as much. It appears that due to fed injections of liquidity the market is in a bullish mode and we need your advice bececause it complcates the normal data you publish.
What I would like to see is when are we going to make money?. You need a different stretegy or the timing as your model has not produced the results. Some of the positions are doing very well now, but we sold out last July or so.
Thanks
George, who appointed you the MCP blog monitor?
Hi,Claus.The problem I have with part of your theory,is that you seem to be assuming that when inflation ticks up enough,the Government will do something – despite all evidence pointing in the opposite direction.Given enough inflation,US stocks will not fall in nominal terms,despite their overvaluation.That does not make stocks a good investment,but it may make inverse stock ETFs a bad one.
Claus,
I agree with Daniel. The Fed was created by the banks to serve the banks. Congress enacted this creature to funnel the special interest money to get re-elected. If you truly believe the Feds primary mandate is price stability and full employment, then I guess you still stay up late on Christmas eve waiting for Santa to slide down the chimney. The primary objective of this private institution is to ensure the profits (and survival) of the banks. Shorting the financials and by default the market leaves us in a very precarious position since the Fed can and will cause inflation. Remember that we are off the gold standard and money is now truly fiat. Benanke has stated he will not let deflation occur. He will prove it by sending us into hyperinflation. This will lead to rising stock prices in nominal terms, a disaster for inverse equity plays.
Claus, have you noticed that the losses are continuing to mount?
Total Invested $677,247.31
Cash $249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value $926,608.81
Total Return Since Inception -7.34%
S&P 500 Return Since Inception 57.23%
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500 -64.57%
How can you sit in the war rooms with a straight face and pontificate about your technical indicators month after month when your results are so dismal over such an extended time frame? Would you be willing to concede that there is the remotest possibility that your technical analysis doesn’t mean squat when the FED et al are manipulating the markets?
And the deterioration continues:
Number of Holdings: 12
Total Invested………………………………….$675,138.89
Cash……………………………………………….$249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value………………………..$924,500.39
Total Return Since Inception…………..( -7.55%) <—–
S&P 500 Return Since Inception……….+57.47% <—–
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500………(-65.02%) <—–
Claus,
Here in the United States the media has been incessantly informing the American public that the US financial markets are at a two year high yet the MDCP has now hit a new 21 month low in its’ performance.
Why has this happened? Why is it continuing to happen? Do you Martin Weiss believe that the ongoing and continuing under-performance by the MDCP is acceptable, explainable? I and other members have repeatedly asked you both to please be professionally minded enough and kindly address this sad money loosing fact.
More troublesome than the portfolio’s loss in value of around 7% is the much greater losses vis-a-vis the markets [S&P 500] 57% gain and the missed opportunities by the MDCP to have participated in that 57% gain. According to my broker’s [Merrill Lynch] accounts services in conjunction with Merrill’s ETF/CEF tracking and research department the NASDAQ-100 Index would have to now decline nearly 80% for my position in PSQ to become a ‘break even’ portfolio holding for me.
An interesting factoid to ponder upon is this: I purchased my shares of PSQ at $59.40 and the MDCP purchased its’ shares of PSQ at $59.41, at nearly 14% of the weight of the MDCP’s portfolio it is in fact not only our largest equity position by weighting it sadly also lays claim to being the MDCP’s largest loss to date!
It is difficult for me to understand why we have continued to hold PSQ when page 1 of ProShares prospectus in big bold letters states the following:
The Fund seeks daily leveraged investment results and does not seek to achieve its stated investment objective over a period of time greater than one day.
ProShares is literally giving investors a 7 1/2 hour ( one trading day) semi guarantee that their product will perform exactly as it was designed to. ProShares is only willing to give investors a single trading day ‘guarantee’ on their own investment product’s performance and yet we have held this investment vehicle for over a year and a half or roughly 605 days!
With all due respect Claus, do you know something more about the performance properties of mid and long term ownership of inverse ETFs than its’ creator and one of its’ largest marketers? I simply cannot fathom why we would continue to hold onto an equity position that is both the portfolio’s largest weighted position with nearly a 42% loss in its worth for this length of time; Especially in light of ProShares cautionary guidance statements and one trading day anticipated product performance guarantee. Would you please give us some insight into your thinking concerning the issues surrounding the holding of inverse ETFs/ETNs for other than short or near term trading periods.
Regards
I quit following Claus’ recos months ago! It’s clear to me He and Martin think Claus knows more than he actually does. This portfolio is a dog!
Claus,
Read your latest commentary entitled ‘Breakout or Double-Top’ dated Dec. 22, 2010 and I immediately remembered another wonderfully constructed investment ‘thesis’ you penned for the MCP membership this past summer . You too may recall it. It was titled: ‘The Bear Market Is Back’ dated July 1, 2010.
Looking over some metrics encompassing the period from July 1, 2010, the date of your ‘The Bear Market Is Back’ article until today’s, Dec. 22, 2010, piece ‘Breakout or Double-Top’ I was non-violently ‘assaulted’ by both the financial losses within the portion of my investment portfolio that is dedicated to and constructed entirely and solely upon the investment advice that have I received from the MCP through your advisement and secondly how severely you have, to this point, mis-judged the markets’ directional movements as well as mis-timed equity purchases and sales for nearly two consecutive years.
Below is just a sampling of several indices/metrics from the same days your articles to members were published and how these indices/metrics have fared up against your own conclusions as well as what you told us were your interpretations of the data points that you utilize to formulate your investment plan for managing the portfolio.
On July 01, 2010 the DJIA closed at: 9,732.53 = ‘The Bear Market Is Back’
On Dec. 22, 2010 the DJIA closed at: 11,559.49 = ‘Breakout or Double-Top’
11,559.49 ( – ) 9,732.53 = + 1,826.96 points, a gain of 18.77%!
[Doesn't look as if the markets knew they were supposed to be back in bear market mode. ]
On July 01, 2010 the S&P 500 closed at: 1,027.37 = ‘The Bear Market Is Back’
On Dec. 22, 2010 the S&P 500 closed at: 1,258.84 = ‘Breakout or Double-Top’
1,258.84 ( – ) 1,027.37 = +231.47 points, a gain of 22.53%!
[Doesn't look as if the markets knew they were supposed to be back in bear market mode here also. ]
On July 01, 2010 the NASDAQ-100 closed at: 1,734.31 = ‘The Bear Market Is Back’
On Dec. 22, 2010 the NASDAQ-100 closed at: 2,235.91 = [Index behind inverse the ETF 'PSQ']
2,235.91 ( – ) 1,734.31 = +501.60 points, a gain of 28.92%!
[Looks like the bull market was back and not the bear market you warned of.]
It’s also noteworthy to point out the performance differential between PSQ and its’ underlying performance measurement index, the NASDAQ-100. Despite the fact that the NASDAQ-100 rose 28.92 % during that very same period of time PSQ fell from an opening price of $45.16 on July 01, 2010 to a closing price of $34.43 on Dec. 22, 2010 / $45.16 – $34.43 = (- $10.73) which is a 23.75% loss in a mere six months. Think about what that figure works out to when it’s annualized, I have.
The MCP purchased PSQ on May 05, 2009 at a per share cost of $59.41. PSQ closed today, Dec. 22, 2010 at $34.43 which represents a per share loss of $24.98 or a percentage loss of 42.03%. The NASDAQ-100 Index opened May 05, 2009 at 1,423.88 and closed today Dec. 22, 2010 at 2,235.91 which represents a gain of 812.03 points, an increase of 57.03%.
Simply stated, if PSQ has lost 42.03% of its’ value since the MCP purchased it on May 05, 2009 for the MCP’s portfolio and its underlying index to measure the MCP’s performance against, the NASDAQ-100 gained 57.03% over the identical time frame then in reality PSQ has underperformed the NASDAQ-100 by 99.06%!!!!!
I hope you can see from the above figures why I frequently ask on this blog: “Who’s doing the math on PSQ?”.
The MCP’s ‘Portfolio’ web page gives the following detailed information concerning their position in PSQ: http://www.weissresearchissues.com/mam/mcp/portfolio
Here’s an interesting video by Jim Wiandt on ETFs that relates well to our portfolio’s inverse ETFs and the ‘Flash Crash’
Enjoy!
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/jim-wiandt-looks-at-etf-risks-real-and-imagined-2010-11-17/E92C6E27-F1E0-46B5-A431-AD2257F2E0D1#!E92C6E27-F1E0-46B5-A431-AD2257F2E0D1
The inexorable decline in value for the MDCP continues:
Number of Holdings:
12 Total Invested………………………..$672,514.16
Cash………………………………………….$249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value…………………..$921,875.66
Total Return Since Inception………..(-7.81%)
S&P 500 Return Since Inception……$57.52%
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500…..(-65.33%)
Claus Vogt,
Are You out there? Hope you are enjoying your Holiday. I want to make a prediction on your bearish double-top thesis. Like most of your other technical chart calls, this one is going to blow up in your face as well. What I foresee happening in the not-to-distant future (most likely in January, 2011) is a market correction of 5% to 10% in the S&P 500. After that correction, we will again see new highs. You will then be issuing another sell alert on all the inverse stock funds for huge losses. I also believe your latest call on shorting silver could be a big fat loser as well. By the looks of things today, silver could be heading higher once again.
Come March, 2011, my subscription to this horrific experience will end. You have until then to get things turned around, or you will be losing another subscriber. What’s the chance of that happening?……..NONE!
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again……You (Claus Vogt) could not make money in any market if your life depended on it. I like others was hoping for a prosperous 2010, but once again you could not deliver. Hindsight is 20/20…….and if I knew this ride was going to be this bad, I would have never signed on. I wish I would have bailed off this ship last year when some of the others did. For those of you subscribers who read this blog, my suggestion to you is to get the heck off this ship. It will never take you down the road to prosperity and profits. Like a few others, I’ve been on board this venture since March, 2009 and it has been a losing one. Get out while it’s not too late!!…….Ask for a refund while you can still get some money back.
My Holidays have not been too happy, because of this dispicable MDCP subscription.
Thanks Claus for all the losing advice you have given. I sure hope you and Martin feel really good about taking peoples money and not fulfilling your promises to make money in any market conditions.
One word of advice to you Claus before I sign off…….Don’t fight the Fed! Bernanke has beat you every time you went short the stock market. It’s currently happening again.
Will
ZSL which the MCP purchased on 12-14-2010 has been in the portfolio for 10 trading days. ZSL sits as of today 12-29-2010 in the MCP’s portfolio with a position loss of -9.52% which means that ZSL has been loosing nearly 1% per day since the MCP acquired it. At the current rate of loss it will theoretically take slightly more than three months before ZSL registers a 100% loss.
Is this scenario possible……. yes, is this scenario probable…….. no; The point being the likelihood of ZSL turning into another PSQ with its’ 42% loss or another significant losing position(s) like SH, SEF or RWM is very real.
The failure by Claus, himself an admitted Austrian School disciple, in refusing to accept Ben Bernanke’s statements as a serious market and psychological ‘motivator/indicator’ has led the MCP to mis-time the purchase and sale of roughly 70% of the MCP’s portfolio holding over the last 21 months.
ZSL’s performance is a perfect example of what I’ve voiced on this blog, for nearly two years, as the use of fundamental and technical analysis without incorporating the ‘new’ attitude of Americans toward investing in light of the Dot com bubble of 2000 and the severe market correction of 2008.
The proof of this failure lies with in the MCP’s performance over the last 21 months and not in my claims. Need additional proof? Click on the two links below:
http://www.weissresearchissues.com/mam/mcp/portfolio
http://www.weissresearchissues.com/mam/mcp/portfolio [Click on 'CLOSED POSITION' link.]
Morningstar’s universe of funds categorized as “contrarian” is up 38% for the same time frame as the MCP has been operational. The result: the MCP has underperformed the average contrarian type portfolio by 45%! [ - 7% MCP performance (+) - 38% under performance vis-a-vis M*'s contrarian portfolio universe's performance = - 45% ].
Our legacy to date:
The MCP has underperformed the S&P 500 by – 66% and also has underperformed Morningstar’s universe of contrarian portfolios by – 45%. These figures would seem to suggest that the MCP did not and still does not have a clear plan of action for success. Sadly, the MCP has underperformed almost every major market index since its’ inception.
Even the WSJ’s stock picking one-eyed monkey with Palsy, the figures suggest, would have performed better in that his random stock picks actually made money over the last two years as opposed to the MCP’s equity picks with its’ losses.
Past performance should not be used as an indicator of future results but it is certainly and undeniably an excellent tool to determine expectations.
No disrespect meant here to anyone, just the facts and only the facts. The MCP’s performance can and does clearly speak for itself.
Happy New Year, Good Luck & Good Bye.
[> END FINAL TRANSMISSION <]
Number of Holdings: 12
Total Invested = $669,560.91
Cash = $249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value = $918,922.41
Total Return Since Inception = -8.11% (loss)
S&P 500 Return Since Inception = +58.64% (gain)
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500 = -66.75% (loss)
Law #10. / > We will always be ready to cut a loss or take a profit.
We will never fall in love with our investments. Even if they are still good long term, to
protect our capital we will cut any losses. And even if we see them continuing higher, there
will be times when it pays to be less greedy, and bank the profits, building a cash position
for new opportunities.
NAME: Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC)
MONTHS IN PORTFOLIO: 21+ months
GAIN / LOSS: +1.28%
NAME: ProShares Short Financials (SEF)
MONTHS IN PORTFOLIO: 20+ months
GAIN / LOSS: – 8.51% (loss)
NAME: ProShares Short S&P500 (SH)
MONTHS IN PORTFOLIO: 20+ months
GAIN / LOSS: – 12.18% (loss)
NAME: ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ)
MONTHS IN PORTFOLIO: 19+ months
GAIN / LOSS: – 41.53% (loss)
NAME: PSHRT RUSSELL2000 (RWM)
MONTHS IN PORTFOLIO: 14+ months
GAIN / LOSS: – 30.01% (loss)
NAME: ProShares Short KBW Regional Bank (KRS)
MONTHS IN PORTFOLIO: 2+ months
GAIN / LOSS: – 14.92% (loss)
Law #10. / > We will always be ready to cut a loss or take a profit.
We will never fall in love with our investments. Even if they are still good long term, to
protect our capital we will cut any losses. And even if we see them continuing higher, there
will be times when it pays to be less greedy, and bank the profits, building a cash position
for new opportunities.
> ??????
These are distinct and concrete examples of saying one thing and doing quite another. Why?
Below is a list of equities that the MCP has sold, the price the MCP sold the position at and finally the current price. The MCP members can determine for themselves how accurately the timing of the sales were. You decide whether these ‘sales’ might have been somewhat premature or not.
Equity: XLU
Price Sold At: $28.40
Current Price: $31.43
Difference: + $3.03 [premature sale / resulting lost per share profit]
Equity
AI
Price Sold At: $47.85
Current Price: $61.06* (London)
Difference: + $13.21 [premature sale / resulting lost per share profit]
Equity: PEP
Price Sold At: $61.77
Current Price: $65.52
Difference: + $3.75 [premature sale / resulting lost per share profit]
Equity: SHI
Price Sold At: $37.28
Current Price: $51.50
Difference: + $14.22 [premature sale / resulting lost per share profit]
Equity: UPS
Price Sold At: $57.45
Current Price: $72.83
Difference: + $15.38 [premature sale / resulting lost per share profit]
Equity: AAN
Price Sold At: $16.93
Current Price: $20.51
Difference: + $3.58 [premature sale / resulting lost per share profit]
Equity: ADM
Price Sold At: $25.68
Current Price: $30.10
Difference: + $4.42 [premature sale / resulting lost per share profit]
Equity: CME
Price Sold At: $279.66
Current Price: $321.40
Difference: + $41.74 [premature sale / resulting lost per share profit]
Equity: EPI
Price Sold At: $22.87
Current Price: $26.32
Difference: + $3.45 [premature sale / resulting lost per share profit]
Equity: EWJ
Price Sold At: $9.56
Current Price: $10.95
Difference: + $1.39 [premature sale / resulting lost per share profit]
Equity: EWY
Price Sold At: $45.64
Current Price: $61.21
Difference: + $15.57 [premature sale / resulting lost per share profit]
Equity: FDO
Price Sold At: $39.65
Current Price: $50.02
Difference: + $10.37 [premature sale / resulting lost per share profit]
Equity: FXI
Price Sold At: $39.95
Current Price: $43.02
Difference: + $3.07 [premature sale / resulting lost per share profit]
………………………………………[ END DUMP ]………………………………………………..
ProShares UltraShort Silver ZSL -10.82%
1/03/2011 silver is trading at $31.19 in pre-open market trading up .70 cents.
Another inverse ETF whose purchase was yet another example of problematic issues with the timing of portfolio purchases. Down 10% in around two weeks.
Number of Holdings:…………………………….12
Total Invested………………………………..$665,804.32
Cash…………………………………………….$249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value……………………….$915,165.82
Total Return Since Inception…………….(-8.48%) <——
S&P 500 Return Since Inception………..+59.56%
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500……….(-68.04%)<——
Claus you stated in your latest report: S&P 500 Potential Double Top, you wrote the following:
“If the S&P 500 breaks out convincingly above the current high Price Momentum Oscillator around 1.225 points, I will react and sell all my inverse ETF positions.”
S&P500 today (1-3-2011) = 1.275
Please be kind enough to explain this costly lack of inaction based upon your above quoted statement in which you specified a plan of action if certain conditions were met.
Thank you.
Hi everyone,
may I wish you and your loved ones a happy and contented New Year.Been a bit quiet on the blog eh!Myself I was in transit right up to Christmas Eve and have been(hopefully like you all)too busy enjoying myself.Nothing to say on the the MDCP which I guess is still going the wrong way.Just a note though,I like Claus’s technical opinions so much I ordered his book”The Global Debt Trap: How to Escape the Danger and Build a Fortune: Rescue Your Assets”(Iknow I’m a sucker). After the second delay it’s scheduled to be sent in February.Guess Claus’s timing malaise strikes again!
take care, Bob J
/ – x > + – / x + – / x > + – / x + – / x > MATHEMATICS < x /- + x / – + < x /- + x / – + < x /- + x
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. *Fun With Numbers* .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .
Let’s have some fun with numbers.
According to the official figures, the national debt currently stands at $14.01 trillion dollars. That’s more than $45,000 per citizen, or almost $127,000 per taxpaying American. If you add in debt held by households, state and local governments and financial institutions, that number (the total US debt) blows out to well over $55.5 trillion, or more than $680,000 per average family. How much in savings does the average family have to offset this amount? $7,918.
“Now just hang on a second,” we hear our fellow reckoners moan, “wasn’t this supposed to be fun with numbers?”
Wait for it…
Letting these figures run for a few years, based on their current trajectories, we see that, in 2015, the national debt explodes to over $22 trillion dollars. Per citizen, we’re now looking at close to $70,000, or $184,000 per taxpayer. Total debt, as measured above, has now grown to over $63 trillion and the average family’s share of that stands at nearly three-quarters of a million dollars. Average savings per family, by the way, have now fallen to just $2,791.
And this doesn’t even account for unfunded liabilities, which are growing like mould on cheese. According to Professor Laurence Kotlikoff’s* estimate, total US off-budget and on-budget debt comes in at more than $200 trillion. We’ll leave you to do the math on everyone’s share of that one.
Of course, by the time you read this, these numbers will be yesterday’s news, new and larger ones having taken their place.
So where’s the fun, you ask? Where are the rib-ticklers, the knee- slappers and the side-splitters?
Glad you asked.
With the national debt currently standing at $14.01 trillion, the US is just weeks away from busting through its so-called “debt ceiling” of $14.29 trillion. As usual, politicians have gone out of their way to miss the point entirely. Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wrote a letter of concern to Congress. You might expect it to contain a desperate warning about how grossly enlarged the debt had become. Not quite.
Geithner’s letter, instead, warned of the “catastrophic consequences” of not raising the debt ceiling! Consequences, said he, which “would last for decades.”
Right, because the consequences of running up gargantuan deficits against your global competitors never carry lasting consequences. The problem, apparently, is that America doesn’t have enough debt. She obviously needs room to accrue more, to really hit her gluttonous stride. Just look at all those nations throughout history that have successfully borrowed their way to prosperity! There’s…um…er…hmmmn….
The letter continues, “Never in our history has Congress failed to increase the debt limit when necessary.” Gee, could that be part of the problem?
Are you laughing yet fellow American? No? What a wonderful comedy this would be…if it weren’t so darned tragic and undeniably factual, despite proclamations to the contrary by the likes of Bernanke and Geithner.
* Laurence Kotlikoff is a Professor of Economics at Boston University
Number of Holdings: 12
Total Invested $663,081.78
Cash $249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value $912,443.28
Total Return Since Inception -8.76% <—- NEW ALL TIME LOW FOR MCP
S&P 500 Return Since Inception 61.05%
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500 -69.81% <—- NEW ALL TIME LOW FOR MCP
Number of Holdings: 12
Total Invested $655,282.01
Cash $249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value $904,643.51
Total Return Since Inception -9.54% <—— New MCP Low
S&P 500 Return Since Inception +61.34%
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500 -70.88% <—– New MCP Low
Number of Holdings: 12 Total Invested $655,378.82
Cash $249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value $904,740.32
Total Return Since Inception -9.53%
S&P 500 Return Since Inception 61.54%
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500 -71.06%
Claus: looks the portfolio has sunk to new lows. Of course you can’t do anything to correct this so I’m not even going to bother asking what your plan of action is. You and Martin certainly have a way with words……..but results are what counts and yours are woefully lacking.
Number of Holdings: ………………………………………… 12
Total Invested……………………………………………………. $652,622.85
Cash………………………………………………………………….. $249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value…………………………………………… $901,984.35
Total Return Since Inception………………………………… (-9.80%) <——- Another New Low!
S&P 500 Return Since Inception……………………………. +62.08% <—— The S&P 500
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500…………………………… (-71.88%) <—– Another New Low!
Claus you stated over a year ago, the first time, that you would “right the ship” as it related to the MCP’s very poor performance. At the time of your initial statement in late 2009 and again in 2010 the MCP’s performance vis-a-vis the S&P 500 Index stood at minus (-35%), an under-performance that ‘inspired’ Martin to offer fleeing members an additional time extension for a full money back guarantee. One year after you pledging to “right the ship” the ship has sustained even greater losses and now stands at at breathtaking minus (-72%) vis-a-vis the the market performance of the S&P 500 Index!
How do you explain this extended period of gross under-performance by you during a period in which one of the greatest historical bull market runs in the equity markets occurred? Is this now the acceptable standard of poor performance that uniquely qualifies and allows for, the authorship of a book dealing with informing and educating its’ readers and to direct them into successful management of their wealth?
I’m just not sure if that type of contradictory behavior is dishonest, typical or both. Whatever it is, it is unfortunately typical of a time where integrity has seemingly been tossed under the bus so that greed and narcissism can get a warm comfortable seat inside the bus.
Number of Holdings: 12
Total Invested……………………………$653,302.19
Cash…………………………………………$249,361.50
Total Portfolio Value………………….$896,663.69
Total Return Since Inception…………………………. (-10.33%) <—– ANOTHER NEW MCP LOW!
S&P 500 Return Since Inception…………………….. +62.20% <—– A TWO YEAR HIGH/S&P500
Contrarian Portfolio vs. S&P 500……………………..(-72.53%) <—– ANOTHER NEW MCP LOW!
PSQ, currently at a -43% portfolio position loss is now well on its’ way toward a -50% loss. Actionable
Well Claus,
You’ve now succesfully decimated the portfolio (10% loss). Your inability to make a decision and stick to it is incredible. On more than one occasion you’ve drawn a line in the sand and then when it was time to act, you sat on your hands or waffled on your position. It appears to me that you have a preconcieved idea as to how the markets will behave and you are unwilling to accept the possibilty that your premise is incorrect. Come hell or high water you seem willing to incur losses to prove a point.
You’ve had almost 2 years to turn a profit and the only thing subscribers have gotten from this service is a littany of excuses and tax write-offs for 2 tax seasons.
Once again we find ourselves blogging on a out dated thread that began in mid December. Team MCP or whomever is responsible for ensuring new threads are started in a timely fashion for new months and in this case a new year need to take their responsibility seriously. It’s Jan. 20, 2011 and we (the very few who are still remaining and this, our current blog was started on Dec. 13, 2011.
Claus, shouldn’t we be buying gold on this pull-back in its’ price? NGD or GRS both look like excellent candidates to replace our perennial looser Kinross/KGC? When will you accept that fact that Kinross has not participated in gold’s bull run and it doesn’t show any indication that Kinross is about to start participating. It does however participate very well when gold’s price pulls back. Kinross is now down over 12% whereas gold is only down $80 from its all time high of around $1,424.